China’s FX Reserves Near $2 Trillion

Last week, China revealed that in the most recent quarter, its economy grew at the slowest pace in nearly five years. It also revealed that its foreign exchange reserves crossed $1.9 Trillion, due to a record monthly trade surplus. How can this seeming contradiction in economic peformance be reconciled? In my opinion, the Chinese economy will continue to slow as a result of a generalized post-olympics slowdown and falling
export demand brought on by the global economic crisis. The consequent collapse in risk appetite will bear negatively on investing in Chinese assets. Its stock market has already lost 50% of its value this year, and foreign direct investment (which is more difficult to monitor) is certainly sliding. In other words, there will be less foreign capital for the Central Bank to soak up, and less pressure on the RMB to appreciate. AFP reports:

The various factors at play could actually be causing some capital outflows as troubled foreign firms and investors may need the money overseas.

Read More: China’s forex reserves pass 1.9 trillion dlrs: central bank

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